It’s finally my Super Bowl and while I haven’t written much about the movies I saw and (mostly) loved this year, I’d be remiss not to make my final guesses on who I thought would win what at tonight’s Academy Awards. Since I’m not Jimmy Kimmel I’ll skip the intro and just get started.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Want to Win: Dev Patel – Lion
Honestly, I’ll be shocked if Ali doesn’t take away the big prize tonight. Not only was he fantastic, but he’s been an award season favorite all along. Patel’s win at the BAFTA’s indicates favor in his direction too, I’m not sure there’s enough for the trophy, though I’m still pulling for him – while Ali’s Juan shaped Moonlight in a way that a lot of supporting characters don’t, Patel got to do some serious leading-man material in Lion. It doesn’t hurt that I think he’d give the most endearing acceptance speech.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis – Fences
Want to Win: Naomi Harris – Moonlight
Viola Davis can and does do anything. She’s fantastic, and was the ultimate scene-stealer in Fences, but I just didn’t see her as a supporting character. She’s a star in anything she does, which is why I’d love to see a win for Naomi Harris, who not only completely transformed for her Moonlight role but also filmed all her scenes in just three days, which I think is absolutely incredible.
Will Win: Casey Affleck – Manchester By The Sea
Want to Win: Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Though Denzel Washington’s SAG Award win for Fences bodes well, I don’t see anybody but Casey Affleck walking away with the Oscar tonight. He’s won nearly every award this season, and has been a front-runner for what feels like a full year. There’s no way Andrew Garfield will win but it would be nice, right?
Will Win: Emma Stone – La La Land
There’s nothing I can say here that hasn’t already been said a million times. If Emma Stone’s not accepting an award tonight, I’ll be completely stunned.
It’s Damien Chazelle v. Barry Jenkins, and honestly I’m not confident enough to bet in any direction. So I’m cheating here and saying both.
Can anything beat La La Land here either? Moonlight cleaned up at the Spirit Awards yesterday but with so much leaning in the musical’s favor it’s hard to tell where tonight will land. I think either is deserving of the big win, though Lion and Arrival ended up being unexpected favorites of mine this season, and I believe Hidden Figures should be required viewing for all Americans this year. I don’t see the quiet Hell or High Water or violent Hacksaw Ridge making waves, though Fences or Manchester By The Sea could potentially break through to the finish. Whoever wins, in a few hours nobody’s guesses will matter, and we’ll already looking ahead to 2018.